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Nov Consumer Spending Down, Personal Income Down

Personal spending fell 0.6% in November, a bit better than the expected 0.7% drop, although personal income unexpectedly dropped, the Commerce Department said today.
November marks the fifth month in a row that consumer spending is down, the longest streak on record since the government began tracking the data in 1959. Economists were expecting a 0.7% drop. But adjusting for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.6% in November. That's the largest increase since June 2005, and due primarily to falling energy prices.

Personal income fell 0.2%, the first decline in four months and a surprise to economists who were expecting no change for the month. Commerce also revised October personal income down to a scant 0.1% gain.

Disposable income fell 0.1%, but after adjusting for inflation and taxes, real disposable income was up 1.0%. Inflation as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged in November as expected. The headline PCE price index fell a record 1.1% in November.

Core PCE is up 1.9% over the last year, just under the 2.0% gain expected. Headline PCE is up only 1.4% over the last year, the smallest gain since August 2002

Japan’s Manufacturer Confidence

Confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell the most on record as exports collapsed, signaling the recession will extend into 2009. Sentiment among large manufacturers was minus 44.5 points this quarter compared with minus 10 points three months earlier, a survey by the Cabinet Office and Finance Ministry showed today. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists. The government began compiling the report in 2004.

Stocks fell on concern that a deepening global downturn will further depress sales of Japanese cars, cameras and televisions. Exports plunged an unprecedented 26.7 percent in November and Toyota Motor Corp. expects its first operating loss in 71 years in the 12 months ending March.

The outlook is worsening because not only the U.S. and Europe but also emerging economies are plunging now.

The Japanese currency’s 23 percent gain this year is compounding the misery for Toyota, Canon Inc. and Sony Corp., which are cutting output and firing workers as demand weakens and profits dwindle. Toyota this week forecast an operating loss of 150 billion yen.

Denso Corp., the world’s largest listed auto-parts maker, today lowered its full-year net income forecast by 90 percent because of falling demand from carmakers and the stronger yen.

Large manufacturers said they plan to cut capital investment for the first time since the survey began in June 2004. Spending on plant and equipment will fall 2.4 percent in the year ending March, the survey showed.

Canon said last week that it will delay construction of a factory in Nagasaki prefecture, western Japan, because of weakening sales of digital cameras.

Industrial production probably fell 6.8 percent in November from a month earlier, according to the median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Today’s report came a week after the central bank’s Tankan survey, Japan’s most closely watched gauge of business confidence, showed sentiment among large manufacturers dropped the most since the first oil shock in 1975. Unlike the Tankan, which measures the level of confidence, today’s survey examines the degree of change in sentiment from the previous quarter.

The economy shrank in the past two quarters, sending Japan into its first recession since 2001, and the government forecasts zero growth next fiscal yea

KENAIKAN DEFISIT EROPA MENINGKAT

Perekonomian Eropa saat ini mengalami kontraksi dan diperkirakan masih akan berlanjut hingga tahun depan. Wilayah Euro juga masih akan mengalami inflasi, meski akan mengalami penurunan. Demikian dikatakan oleh anggota Dewan Uni Eropa John Hurley.
Dari data ekonomi yang dikeluarkan tadi malam, Spanyol masuk kedalam resesi untuk pertama kalinya dalam 15 tahun terakhir dimana GDPnya mengalami kontraksi sebesar 0.2% pada kuartal ketiga yang jatuh untuk kedua kalinya berturut-turut dalam dua kuartal ini. GDP tahunan jatuh 1.5% dibanding tahun lalu. Uni Eropa mengalami defisit, dari 10.6 milyar bn euro tinggal 6.4 milyar euro di bulan Oktober.

Sementara Inggris pada kuartal ketiga ini secara tidak terduga GDP-nya mengalami penurunan dari -0.6% ke -0.5% dibanding kuartal sebelumnya. Meski demikian, dari pertumbuhan tahunan masih tetap di +0.3%. Kontraksi ekonomi Inggris ini merupakan yang terbesar sejak 1990.

Defisit perdagangan Inggris pada kuartal ketiga ini turun 7.7 milyar dari 11.0 milyar yang mencerminkan adanya aliran investasi asing yang masuk. Indek jasa Inggris jatuh 0.2% dibulan Oktober,menurun keempat bulan kalinya secara berturut.

Hati-hati Trading di akhir Tahun 2008

Mengingat pada meningkatnya ketidakstabilan pada keadaan keuangan internasional dan pasar modal, serta terbatasnya likuiditas dan rendahnya aktivitas forex market selama 2 minggu terakhir tahun ini, Terjadi perubahan spread yang melebar di semua broker .untuk itu bagi anda para trader agar berhati-hati dalam melakaukan open posisi .

* Dalam pengamatan saya mulai dari bukanya market pada hari Minggu 21 Des 2008 jam 5 pm EST (Senin 22 Des jam 5 pagi WIB) Telah terjadi pelebaran spread dan hal ini di perkirakan terjadi sampai hingga 4 Januari 2009: Spread untuk seluruh instrumen finansial, yang terdaftar di Market Watch, akan dinaikkan hingga 2x atau lebih , demikian halnya dengan jarak minimum pada stop dan limit order. Mungkin selama 2 minggu terakhir dari tahun ini.
* Pada 4 Januari 2009 semua spread dan jarak minimum dari stop dan limit order di perkirakan baru akan kembali normal.

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